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A verdict is the one-word answer at the top of a Tradion Lens result, with a Probability percentage beside it. Here is what each part means, and how both get misread.

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BULLISH, BEARISH, NEUTRAL

Tradion Lens answers “which way does this lean”, not “buy this now”. A BULLISH read describes the chart and the data behind it. It is not an instruction. A NEUTRAL read comes back with no trade setup: entry, stop and target are removed before the panel renders, so nothing on it reads as actionable. NEUTRAL is common and not a failure. Not every chart leans.

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What Probability measures

Probability is not the chance that a trade makes money. A BULLISH read at 80% does not win 8 times in 10. It is the strength of the read: the evidence pointed one way more consistently than on a 40% read.
It is one number with no breakdown behind it. It ignores your position size, your holding period, and news that breaks tomorrow.

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Entry, stop, target, and the ratio between them

When a live setup exists, the panel shows a Trade Setup with three prices: entry, where the setup makes sense; stop, where you exit if it goes against you; target, where the move is expected to run out. Under them sits R:R, the risk/reward ratio. Risk/reward is the distance from entry to target divided by the distance from entry to stop, written like 3:1. At 3:1 you gain three times what you risk, so you can be right well under half the time and still come out ahead. The ratio is arithmetic on those three prices, not a separate judgement. Move the stop further away and the ratio falls, which is how a good-looking setup quietly becomes mediocre.

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Where 3:1 and 25% come from

Say you risk the same amount on every trade. At 3:1 a winner pays you three of those and a loser costs you one. Take four trades and win once: you make three, you lose three, you finish level. One in four is 25%, so 25% is the rate at which that ratio stops costing you money. The arithmetic is 1 ÷ (ratio + 1). At 2:1 you need a third of them to work, at 1:1 you need half.
This is not an argument for always picking the biggest ratio. A target further away is reached less often, so the two numbers move against each other. A 1:1 setup you win 60% of the time beats a 3:1 setup you win 20% of the time. The break-even rate is the floor you have to clear, not a score to maximise.
None of it accounts for fees, spread, or slippage, so treat the real floor as a little higher than the arithmetic says.

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The levels above and below the price

The Critical levels block holds three reference prices for a stated time window:
  • Pivot point, a neutral reference: the last complete candle’s high, low, and close averaged. Tradion computes it from market data rather than taking the model’s figure.
  • R1 (resistance), a price above, where selling has tended to appear and the move stalls.
  • S1 (support), a price below, where buying has tended to appear and the fall stops.
R1 and S1 each carry a break probability: the model’s estimate of the chance price pushes all the way through inside that window. It is an estimate, not a count of past occurrences, so treat 55% and 45% as “roughly a coin flip either way”. The set has to survive a check before you see it: R1 above the current price, S1 below it, each at least half an ATR away. Fail any of that and the whole block is dropped rather than patched, so a panel with no critical levels is not an omission. The numbers did not hold together. The block also shows ATR (Average True Range), how far a symbol typically travels in one period, in dollars. Tradion Lens calculates it from real price bars. If your stop is tighter than the ATR, ordinary movement takes you out before the idea gets a chance.

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In plain English

Read the panel in this order:
  1. The word, a reading of the chart, not an instruction.
  2. Probability, the strength of the read, not the odds of a payout.
  3. The three prices. If entry-to-stop is smaller than the ATR, the stop is too tight for this symbol.
  4. The ratio. A low one needs you to be right most of the time.
Nothing on the panel knows your account size, your other positions, or what you will do once you are in.

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When to distrust a verdict

A snapshot is a read of one moment. Reopen an older one and it says which chart and time it was taken from, because price has moved since. Take a new snapshot before acting on an old verdict.
Market data was unavailable, so this analysis is based on the chart image only means the live data behind the read was missing, so indicator values may be estimated from the picture. Weigh that read less.
Earnings, an economic release, or a rate decision can override chart structure entirely. Technical analysis two days before earnings is analysis of a chart, not of the situation.
Tradion Lens draws on Tradion Memory when personalisation is on. With few autopsies logged that layer has little to say, and the read is closer to generic.

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Nobody is keeping score

Tradion never goes back to check a verdict it gave you. There is no accuracy figure on a past read, no win rate by verdict, no record of where price went afterwards. That is the second reason not to read Probability as odds: no number on the panel has ever been measured against an outcome. So keep the score yourself. Log the trade you took off a verdict and let Trade Autopsy grade how you handled it. Ten of those tell you the thing no panel can: whether these reads work on the instruments and timeframes you trade.

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Verdicts are analysis, not advice

A verdict is one input from a model reading a chart and market data, and it can be wrong in ways the Probability gives no warning about. The decision is yours every time.

Tradion Lens

Where verdicts come from: sessions, the live chart, and snapshots.

Glossary

Plain-English definitions of the terms used across the site.